October Surprise

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Embed from Getty Images

So – a few things to watch for Monday, October 30th.

Late Friday afternoon, October 27th, CNN reported that a federal grand jury in Washington, DC approved the first criminal charges in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation meaning that someone is expected to be arrested and taken into custody as early as Monday, October 30th. Great read by Garrett M. Graff of WIRED as to how to interpret Mueller’s new charges.

From the story: “Expect to see garden-variety white-collar crimes—charges like money laundering, mail fraud, wire fraud, and “structuring,” (arranging financial transactions to avoid federal reporting requirements)—as well as the possibility of some more exotic charges like violating the nation’s election laws or the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act, or there’s a general catch-all known as 18 USC Sec. 371, “conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States.”

“The approach, then and now, has been almost always been similar: Work on peripheral figures first, encourage them to cooperate with the government against their bosses in exchange for a lighter sentence, and then repeat the process until the circle has closed tightly around the godfather or criminal mastermind.”

Speculation is rife as Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager/advisor, Jeffrey Yohai, Manafort’s estranged son-in-law, Lieutenant General Michael T. Flynn (ret.), Trump’s former National Security Adviser and his son, Michael G. Flynn, a former Trump transition team staff member are bookie favorites.

Upon hearing the impending arrest on Friday evening, Roger Stone , a controversial advisor and staunch defender of U.S. President Trump, launched into a threatening and abusive tirade against CNN anchors and contributors resulting in a permanent suspension on Twitter.

Trump made no reference to Stone but in a flurry of Tweets on Sunday, October 29th, made allegations against former U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Democrats re: e-mails, dossier, uranium, and Comey with an emphatic request demanding Republicans to “DO SOMETHING!”

To quote The Bangles, it’s just another manic Monday.

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25 days and counting – that’s how many legislative days are left between now and the end of the year and there’s a lot to get accomplished including budgets, taxes, healthcare and cyber security.

According to POLITICO, as of this week, the Senate Intelligence Committee is expected to get documents from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign for its probe into Russian election interference while the House Intelligence Committee is getting access via the FBI to the much ballyhooed Trump pee tapes dossier for its own Russian investigation.

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Catalonia latest: To bring you up to speed, the parliament of Catalonia, a semi-autonomous (and wealthy) region of Spain, voted to declare independence. The Spanish government said, “no bueno” and dissolved the regional government to the chagrin of the deposed Catalan president, Carles Puigdmemont. On Sunday, October 29th, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in Barcelona to call for Spanish unity.

Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy has called for regional elections on December 21st.

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On a historical note, on this day in 1974, Muhammad Ali and George Foreman stepped into the ring and the history books for the legendary “Rumble in the Jungle” fight in Kinshasa, Zaire. Ali won the heavyweight championship after knocking out Foreman in the 8th round; and finally, in 1905, Russian Tsar Nicholas II, in an attempt to stave off a revolt, issued the October Manifesto , which laid the groundwork for the protection of civil rights, the creation of a constitution, and establishment of a parliament called the Duma.

 

Catalonia, China’s Social Credit System, and Clear Pumpkin Pie.

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A look at some of the stories trending this weekend, October 27-30

Catalonia announced their independence from Spain resulting in the dismissal of the region’s parliament in what is billed as Spain’s largest political crisis post Franco era. According to Reuters, several European countries, including France and Germany, and the United States also rejected the independence declaration and said they supported Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s efforts to preserve Spain’s unity. A new election will be held in Catalonia on Dec. 21.

For all of the hand-wringing in the West about big data and privacy, a fascinating read in WIRED as to how the Chinese government plans to launch its mandatory Social Credit System in 2020, which is currently voluntary. Good scores offer perks including a fast-tracked application to a coveted pan-European Schengen visa while bad scores can limit travel, education, and internet speeds. “I think the best way to understand the system is as a sort of bastard love child of a loyalty scheme,” Rogier Creemers, a post-doctoral scholar specializing in Chinese law and governance at the Van Vollenhoven Institute at Leiden University.

Filed under: just because you can, doesn’t mean you should. Alinea, a Michelin 3-star restaurant in Chicago, now offers clear pumpkin pie and most of the Internet can’t handle it. Myself included.

Clear pumpkin pie by @simon.a.davies #holidays #pumpkinpie

A post shared by Grant Achatz (@grant_achatz) on

And finally, the World Series continues between the Houston Astros and LA Dodgers. Great read by the WSJ as to how the good folks of Texas are less than amused with the oft-referenced NASA mission phrase and Twitter account @UghHouston is devoted to chronicling offending uses of “Houston, we have a problem,” and chastising guilty parties to do better.

See you next week.

Background: November

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Between now and the end of the year, there’s a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill, the FIFA corruption trial kicks off in Brooklyn, Trump visits Asia, retailers brace for the holidays, and the award season is up-and-running. Updated October 21.

November 1: Twenty three (23) working days left in 2017 according to the House Majority Leader’s calendar and on the to-do list: healthcare, budgets, trade, and taxes. On the radar: whether or not the U.S. House of Representatives reauthorizes Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a controversial provision that allows overseas electronic surveillance but ends at the end of the year.

Speaking of controversy, executives from Twitter, Facebook, and Google are scheduled to testify before the Senate and House Intelligence Committees and face questions as to how these platforms were used to spread fake news and influence last year’s election. Hashtag #awkward.

November 2: United Nations International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists. This year alone, 30 journalists have been murdered as per CPJ. The latest victim was Malta journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia, 53, killed by a car bomb on October 16th. A critic of the current government, she published allegations linking the Prime Minister Joseph Muscat to the Panama Paper scandal.

November 3: U.S. President Trump heads off to Asia. On the list: Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, China, and the Philippines. On the agenda: North Korea, trade, and meeting with Philippine President Rodrigo Dutuerte, accused of crimes against humanity as well as battling Islamic State group-affiliated militants. Unclear if there will be live Tweeting from the DMZ.

November 4: Occupy Trump. As per Politico, nearly a year after U.S. President Trump’s election, members of the Resistance are planning to descend upon America’s major cities with the intention of occupying city centers and parks until Trump and Pence have left the building. Hope they’re bringing a set of spare clothes because it’s gonna be awhile.

November 6: FIFA corruption trial re: United States vs. Napout. Background: Former FIFA vice president Juan Angel Napout of Paraguay is accused of taking bribes from companies while president of CONMEBOL, the FIFA-affiliated confederation that governs soccer in South America. There are 26 co-defendants with the majority having entered guilty pleas and awaiting sentencing. Location: U.S. Eastern District Court in Brooklyn, New York.

November 7: Election Day in the U.S. and it’s all about state and local elections with an eye on Utah, New Jersey, Virginia, New York, Maine, Ohio, and Georgia.

November 8: 51st annual CMAs a/k/a Country Music Association award ceremony hosted by Carrie Underwood and Brad Paisley in Nashville, Tennessee. Although singer Jason Aldean was shut out in all categories, expect memorials and tributes dedicated to the victims, families, and first responders at his concert in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 1st when a gunman killed 58 people.

November 12: 24th annual MTV Europe Music Awards return to London and hosted by Rita Ora. Yes, it’s still a thing.

November 18: Look up to catch a glimpse of a dazzling light show from space otherwise known as the Leonids. Every few decades, this comet generates a storm where more than 1,000 meteors can been seen an hour. The last time the Leonids were that strong was in 2002.

November 19: 45th annual American Music Awards. Diana Ross receives a Lifetime Achievement Award but it’s still a man’s world as Bruno Mars leads with eight nominations, including Artist of the Year against Drake and Kendrick Lamar. Ed Sheeran and The Chainsmokers – each with five noms.

November 23: Thanksgiving Day. America gives thanks, turns on the 93rd annual Macy’s Day Parade, eats turkey, and watches a lot of football. T-minus 33 days until Christmas. For the first time in NFL history, three (3) games will be played.

November 24: Black Friday. Because not everyone watches football, retailers open their doors and slash their prices on Thanksgiving night to woo customers out of the house and open their wallets. Although declining in numbers compared to online sales, last year’s Black Friday sales rose 21.6% to $3.4 billion USD with a big chunk attributable to mobile purchases.

November 26: Canadian as maple syrup and Justin Trudeau, the NHL celebrates its 100th anniversary and where it all began: the Windsor Hotel in Montreal, eh.

November 27: Cyber Monday. Coined in 2006, today’s the day to get deals not found in brick-and-mortar stores. Truth be told, that’s pretty much the case every day of the year but I digress. In 2016, $3.45 billion was spent online, more than 12% from the previous year and the largest online sales day in U.S. history.

November 28: Grammy nominations announced in Los Angeles but the big news is that the upcoming 60th annual award ceremony is returning to New York for the first time since 2003. Madison Square Garden will be the venue and James Corden is the host.

November 30: Today marks the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season, one of the most lethal and costly on record. This year was the first time since 1893 that ten hurricanes formed in a row.

A brief history of national security leaks

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Admittedly, the first month of the Trump administration has been fodder for so many things but what he shares with every president since the inception of the National Security Council in 1947 are leaks to the press.

If you’re looking for subterfuge and politics, the 70-year history of the NSC will not disappoint.

When U.S. President Lyndon Baines Johnson complained about the leaks, his assistant, Ralph Dugan denounced the State Department saying “I’ve got about as much confidence in them as I have in a Soviet spy.”

The spy thing is for a different post but I digress…

And of course, the infamous quip by Ronald Reagan, January 10, 1983. “I’ve had it up to my keister with these leaks.”

What would then-U.S. Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) say about the breach in protocol?

Oh, Mr. Grant!

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“The Mary Tyler Moore Show” addressed sex, birth control, equal pay, workplace sexism and homosexuality, making it “a laboratory for the social issues of the day,” the NYT notes in her obit.

Sure, Mary Richards was a fictitious character: an associate news producer for a local television station in Minneapolis, Minnesota but her role gave a generation of girls, myself included, a new perspective for jobs that weren’t limited to traditional female roles e.g. secretary or teacher.

A shout-out to Hazel Frederick, the curious onlooker who watched Mary Tyler Moore toss her beret into the air in the opening scene of one of television’s best-loved sitcoms. As per her obit in the LA Times in 1999, Frederick was shopping in downtown Minneapolis one day in 1969 when a camera crew filmed Moore in the here-I-come hat toss for the opening of her long-running “Mary Tyler Moore Show.” Frederick’s puzzled reaction was caught on film as she stood in the background in a green coat with fur collar and matching scarf. A neighbor spied Frederick on the first episode of the show and word was spread among Frederick’s family. Alerted by a daughter, Frederick finally saw her widely televised image on the third episode. She remained largely anonymous to the watching world until 1996, when Moore was in her area for a book signing. Moore invited Frederick to join her on stage and introduced her to 5,000 people as “my co-star.”

Election cybersecurity

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As if the American election process isn’t Byzantine enough with local, state, and federal rules and regulations, we have multiple ways of collecting, tallying, and reporting votes in 9,000 jurisdictions throughout the United States including optical scan, direct recording electronic systems (DRE), ballot marking devices, and punch card voting systems, early voting, absentee voting, and provisional ballots.

According to the NYT, the Obama administration is weighing new steps to bolster the security of the voting process against cyberthreat, “including whether to designate the electronic ballot-casting system for November’s elections as “critical infrastructure”, said Jeh Johnson, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security.

Concerns about electronic voting aren’t new, of course, but overt cyberattacks are increasing. While the origins of the various attacks, including the DNC and OPM aren’t officially confirmed, there’s no denying the uptick in hacking decidedly unsecure and outdated computers and software.

Remember the 2000 presidential election and our obsession with hanging chads? A national commission was created in 2002 and Congress allocated more than $3 billion USD in grants to help officials upgrade voting processes and equipment. “But there is more to do,” said Johnson and “we should carefully consider whether our election system, our election process is critical infrastructure, like the financial sector, like the power grid.”

Is declaring the U.S. electronic ballot-casting systems as “critical infrastructure” an overreaction by the Feds? Great piece by Politico explaining that to date, there is not a singular national body that regulates the security on Election Day as it’s a process decided state-by-state. Technical standards for voting are created by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Election Assistance Commission but the guidelines are not mandatory. That’s right – the security of your vote is based on voluntary standards.

A review of polling machines shows aging voting technologies impacting the majority of America including but not limited to the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Expect election cybersecurity concerns to escalate while the clock ticks down to November 8th.

Photo: Reuters



Fashion Week at the RNC

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I’ve leave it for others to dissect the politics of the Republican convention in Cleveland, Ohio and focus on the important stuff: fashion. From the kitsch of Trump socks juxtaposed with the show-stopping Roksanda dress worn by Melania Trump to Stephen Colbert’s very sparkly red, white, and blue attire, a look at convention couture over the past few days.

Full disclosure: be assured, the Dems in Philly will get their runway review next week.

Image by EPA

Cleveland Rocks

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T minus one week to Cleveland, two weeks until Philly, and 120 days to Election Day.

Little known fact: “Cleveland Rocks”, most famously sung by The Presidents of the United States of America and the theme song for “The Drew Carey Show”, was written by British singer-songwriter, Ian Hunter. The song was first released in 1977 under the title “England Rocks” on a single in the United Kingdom, predating the release of the “Cleveland” version by two years.

Why does Cleveland matter? From July 18-21, it’s home to the 2016 GOP Convention where Donald J. Trump is expected to be officially nominated/sanctioned as the Republican candidate for the U.S. Presidential election on November 8th.

And on that note, I need to find my credentials and riot gear. See you there!

via GIPHY