Tariffs, the economy, and Brexit, oh my.

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And welcome to September – let’s get down to it, shall we?

“It’s the economy, stupid.” – James Carville’s quote as a campaign strategist of Bill Clinton’s successful campaign against sitting president George H. W. Bush.

Due to the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, as of September 1st, there’s a 15% tariff on the majority of consumer goods with a focus including flat-panel television sets, printers, flash memory devices, power tools, cotton sweaters, bed linens, toys, and many types of footwear.

Chinese and American officials plan to hold trade talks in Washington in early October, in another attempt to stave off the short and long term uncertainty about the global economy.

If the trade war is not resolved, starting October 1, the tariff rate will increase to 30% on furniture, vacuum cleaners, lighting fixtures, plumbing fixtures, handbags, and luggage. Forget that trip to Ikea or your basic Michael Kors purse until this is resolved.

In short, this could potentially upend the holiday retail season. Who is gonna eat the tariffs? Certainly not Walmart, Target, or Macy’s.

While everyone has a different opinion as to whether or not a recession is pending, one thing that everyone will be watching is the U.S. consumer confidence index (CCI), defined as the degree of optimism about the U.S. economy that consumers express through their spending and savings.

If Americans don’t feel secure in the economy and spending shrinks, that’s when the volatility index (VIX) spikes & everything just goes to hell in a hand basket.

via GIPHY

And now for something completely different: Brexit

via GPHY

According to the Guardian, Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s top adviser or evil Brexit mastermind, depending on your perspective, told friends that it’s going to be “fucking weird” this autumn. That’s an understatement.

Hoping to divert attention from the most recent constitutional crisis since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 and the proposal for Irish Home Rule in 1885, the prime minister adopted a rescue dog and named the pup, Dilyn. Suffice to say, the Official Mouser of Number Ten a/k/a Larry the Cat was not impressed.

As it stands, on October 31, the UK leaves the EU without a deal. Full disclosure: I’m a Brit as well as an American and less than impressed with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s bout of procedural treachery by suspending Parliament until October 14th.

Johnson referred to as “BoJo” by the British media, is scheduled to meet the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, in Dublin and upon his return to London, the beleaguered prime minister is expected to try again for a general election on October 15th – almost guaranteed to fail a second time.

Why should you care? Throw in hard borders between Northern Ireland vs the Republic of Ireland, diplomacy, security, and destabilizing tensions which could jeopardize the Good Friday Accord and you have concerns that violent sectarianism is on the rise again.

While U.S. President Trump has signaled that the US will work with the UK to create a new trade deal following Brexit, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will not consider a new trade deal until the situation in Ireland is resolved.

Then there’s the British pound, sterling, quid – whatever you want to call it, it’s fallen more than 20% in value against the US dollars since UK voters backed Brexit in June 2016. The once-coveted currency is now lower than the euro – speaking of which…

If the UK leaves the EU, there’s a good chance that Italy follows and then you’re looking at the end of the euro. All of this adds up to increased volatility which is fun on carnival rides, not so much for the global economy and stability.

Other dates of note between now and October 31:

September 9: U.S. Congress returns to work.

September 10 – October 14: British Parliament is suspended a/k/a prorogated.

September 10: Apple unveils camera-focused iPhones, iPads & MacBook Pro.

September 11: 18th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

September 12: Trump goes to the “rat and rodent-infested mess” a/ka/ Baltimore for GOP retreat.

September 12. Ten candidates take the stage for the 3rd DNC presidential candidates debate in Houston, TX.

September 13: London Fashion Week Spring/Sumer 2020.

September 17: United Nations General Assembly, a/k/a UNGA (through September 30).

September 17: Federal Reserve expected to lower rates.

September 19: International Talk Like a Pirate Day. Arrr.

September 22: Primetime Emmy Awards.

September 23: Paris Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020.

September 27: IAAF World Athletics Championships begin in Doha (through October 6).

September 30: U.S. government runs out of funding. Leaders from both sides will probably agree to a short-term extension to buy more time to negotiate.

October 1: Deadline for 4th DNC presidential debate requirements.

October 3: NHL season and New York Comic Con kick-off.

October 11: Nobel Peace Prize winner announced.

October 15-16: DNC presidential candidates debate in Ohio.

October 17: British PM Johnson scheduled to go to Brussels for an EU summit.

October 17: 30th anniversary of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in San Francisco.

October 23: MLB World Series – and by the world, I mean US and Canada.

October 26: FIFA U-17 World Cup Brazil 2019 (through November 17).

October 27: Diwali – the biggest and brightest holiday in India a/k/a festival of lights.

October 31: Brexit deadline, Halloween, and Mercury goes into retrograde – don’t say I didn’t warn you.

UNGA, intergalactic freak show, and El Chapo

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Embed from Getty Images

A few events caught my attention between now and the end of the year and yes, the bunny picture is pure click bait. Sorry, not sorry.

September 18: United Nations — 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly, better known as UNGA. Midtown Manhattan will be gridlocked with black sedans bearing diplomatic license plates and tinted windows as world leaders from 193 countries descend upon NYC. The high-level meetings kick off between September 25th – 30th and unlike past years, Russian President Putin is expected to attend.

September 20: Washington, DC — The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to vote to advance the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court despite new allegations of sexual misconduct against the judge. Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) called the contentious hearings an “intergalactic freak show” while Sen. John Flake (R-AZ) wants to delay the confirmation process until the woman who made the allegations, Christine Blasey Ford, is heard.

September 21: Dallas, Texas — First of three debates between U.S. Senate candidates ex Texas: @TedCruz and @BetoORourke

September 24,: Norristown, Pennsylvania — The sentencing of Bill Cosby following his conviction three counts of aggravated indecent assault for drugging and sexually assaulting a Temple University employee at his home in January 2004. Cosby’s legal team has requested the judge recuse himself due to a political conflict of interest.

September 25: Washington, DC — The House of Representatives is back in session leaving only four (4) days to fund the U.S. government before possible shutdown. No pressure.

October 02: Stormy Daniels to release tell-all book “Full Disclosure” which is described as a memoir about her life and past relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.

October 07: Brazil presidential elections.To date, 13 candidates, including the currently jailed former President ‘Lula’ and ‘Brazil’s Trump’ Bolsonaro are up for election. A second runoff between the top two candidates is scheduled for October 28.

October 17: Canada legalizes weed – second only to Uruguay

October 18: Brussels, Belgium — EU Summit. The UK and EU are expected to put the finishing touches on the terms of the Brexit “divorce” and like any celebrity couple, they’re expected to announce a “conscious uncoupling” in the form of a political declaration on their future relationship.

November 4: Brooklyn — Trial date for Mexican kingpin Joaquín Guzmán Loera a/k/a ‘El Chapo’ in U.S. Federal District Court. Given his propensity for escaping, the U.S. Marshalls and NYPD aren’t providing details as to how they’re going to transport the defendant between Manhattan and Brooklyn on a daily basis. And yes, it sounds like the plot for an action thriller starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

November 6: Midterm elections across hundreds of local, state and federal primaries in the U.S. Historically, midterm elections don’t get a lot of attention but between election security issues meddling and a possible shift in power within Congress, Get Out The Vote is the rallying cry for both Democrats and Republicans. For a macro/micro look at the elections, check out NYT’s guide.

November 17: Mercury in retrograde until December 6th. Yeah, this is a thing.

November 30: North America — Official end of the hurricane season.

November 30: Buenos Aires, Argentina — G20 Summit consisting of 19 countries and the EU. Trade and investment ministers are “stepping up the dialogue” as new Trump tariffs loom.

The morning after

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Convo with my dad: “Britain can’t leave the European Union. Look at the cover – the first two words on my passport! What does this all mean?”

Me: “It’ll take about two years before the UK formally leaves the EU. You can use your current passport in the meantime and eventually, we’ll get new ones.”

Dad: “Bugger.”

Indeed but what does it all mean?

A great summary by Alastair Macdonald responds to the top five questions about leaving the EU:

1. Time frame: Approximately two (2) years before the economic and trade divorce is finalized;

2. Economic Council: Remaining members of the EU hustle to find a way to deal with the loss of 1/5 of the EU economy as well as the global and military clout;

3. Article 50: The break-up clause of the Lisbon Treaty. Invoke it or just say “I break with thee three times and throw dog poop on their shoes” ala Steve Martin;

4. EU: Now that the UK has said “adieu” to the EU, the goal is to find new members and fill that 7-billion euro hole in the budget;

5. Right here; right now: For now, nothing changes. Britons remain EU citizens and business continues with the caveat that we’re in unchartered territory including the potential for Scotland to make another attempt for independence and join the EU on their own.

In some ways, this reminds me of the Trump dynamics in the States. Many parts of the UK, especially post WW2, have not experienced or shared in the economic prosperity afforded London as the financial hub of Britain.

Loss of jobs, anger at immigrants, and fear of terrorism are tremendous motivators re: nationalism. “Make [insert country here] Again!”

Plenty of lessons to be learned ahead of the U.S. Presidential general election on November 8, 2016.

The Clash and Brexit

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American politics continue to bubble and boil in the summer heat while counting down to the general election in November. Across the Atlantic and just weeks away, Britain will vote whether or not to stay in the 28-nation European Union, also referred to as the “Brexit” referendum a/k/a British exit on June 23, 2016.

Issues on the table include the economy, jobs, trade, immigration, national security, and its status within Europe. For the Brits, this vote is a game-changer for the nation and the world as greater Europe fails to find a solution regarding the refugee crisis, increased terrorism across the Continent, and a protracted economic recovery.

In a quirky twist of fate, I have the opportunity to vote in this election and like most life events, it comes with a soundtrack and in this case, The Clash’s ode to indecision, “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” does the trick.

For my American friends, a quick tutorial to explain the complicated pros and cons of this relationship or to quote Joe Strummer, “If I go, there will be trouble and if I stay, it will be double.”

Photo by AFP | September 2014 | UK